Description: Predictive modeling is a powerful toolset for assumption setting (mortality, lapse, etc.). The multivariate approach has its advantages in handling high-dimensional data, address correlations, and statistical significance. However, building insurance assumptions is far more than a simple modeling practice. One must take care to address how the model is applied and its business implications. This session will share the learnings from multiple projects.

Description: Traditionally the SOA formulates pedagogic excellence in terms of the Marzano Taxonomy. For example, the "analysis level" consisting of generalization, specification, classification, contrast, matching, and error identification, is considered superior to the "retrieval level" consisting of rote memorization such as recognition, recall, and using. In this presentation, we first show that pedagogic excellence can be equivalently, but more simply, formulated in terms of executive function and goal-setting. Here executive function refers to problems requiring multiple mental modalities - such as, formal, verbal, computational, and graphical - for their solution. Goal-setting refers to the skillful breakup of a complex problem into a sequence of subgoals each of which is clearly formulated, challenging, but achievable timely. Light examples from the literature illustrate these concepts. Five "challenging FM problems": reinvestment, refinancing, multiple rate/deposit problems, pricing deferred bonds using a term structure, and obscure loan problems, illustrate the following fundamental techniques of goal-setting and executive function: i) a fellowship approach to teaching preliminary exam material, ii) using subgoals to give difficult homework, iii) alternating between different mental modalities to achieve elegant brevity in solutions, iv) goal-setting reflecting familiar vs. new, and v) skillful definition of unit subgoals.

Description: Simple mathematical equations often outperform very complex ones in predictive analytics (PA) situations. This session will cover "why" and "how" to guard against overfitting and other potential pitfalls that might not be intuitive.

Description: The arrival of ASU 2018-12 (a.k.a Targeted Improvements to the Accounting for Long-Duration Contracts or GAAP Targeted Improvements) presents insurers with augmented financial reporting risk across all areas of the valuation process. Naturally, the internal control frameworks that serve to mitigate these risks must evolve and expand. Valuation actuaries should view this transformative event as an opportunity to take an active role in developing new and improved controls that are both effective and sustainable.